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Adults in Five Largest European Countries and the U.S. Say Recession Will Last at Least One More Year
added: 2009-07-16

A new Financial Times/Harris Poll finds that very few adults in the five largest European countries and the U.S. believe the recession in their countries will end in the next six months (between 6% in the U.S. and Germany and 2% in Great Britain). A plurality of Britons (45%), Americans (43%), Spaniards (40%) and French adults (40%) as well as 39% of Italians and 32% of Germans believe the recession will end between 1 to 2 years from now.

Additionally, between 14% of Germans and 25% of both Britons and Americans believe it will not end until more than 2 years from now. Germans are the most pessimistic as 21% say they do not expect the recession to end in the foreseeable future, but this is down from December, when 30% of Germans felt this way.

These are some of the findings of a Financial Times/Harris Poll conducted online by Harris Interactive® among a total of 6,362 adults aged 16-64 within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain, and the United States and adults aged 18-64 in Italy between June 24 and 29, 2009.

Feelings on Standard of Living Slightly More Optimistic

In November, strong majorities of French adults (76%), majorities in Spain (59%), Italy (58%), and Great Britain (55%) as well as 45% of Germans and 44% of Americans believed their standard of living would be worse in the next year. These numbers have come down slightly in France (68%), Germany (43%) and the U.S. (36%) and even more in Spain (47%), Great Britain (41%), and Italy (30%). Now, 62% of Italians and almost half of Britons (48%) believe their standard of living will be neither better nor worse. Germans are more pessimistic – in November 21% believed their standard of living would be better in the next year and now that number has dropped to 14%.

Personal Job Loss Concerns

When it comes to concerns over job losses, Italians and Spaniards have become slightly less concerned, but people in other countries have about the same level of concern as they did in December. In December, 21% of Italians were extremely concerned they might lose their job in the next year as were 27% of Spaniards. Now, 13% of Italians are extremely concerned as are 21% of Spaniards. Almost half of French adults (47%), 45% of Germans, 42% of Americans and 40% of Britons are not at all concerned they will lose their jobs within the next year because of the recession.

Savings

While there has been a lot of talk about people saving more and not spending, that may not be the case. Half of French adults (52%) and Italians (50%) as well as 47% of Spaniards say the share of their monthly income that they save has decreased compared to six months ago. Six in ten Germans (60%), half of Britons (52%) and 47% of Americans all say the share of their monthly income that they save has saved the same. Small numbers, between 15% of Spaniards and 5% of Italians, say their savings have increased over the past six months.

The Government’s Handling of the Financial Crisis

In November, majorities of adults in the United States (68%), Spain (62%), Italy (57%) and Great Britain (53%) thought the performance of their country’s government in handling the global financial market crisis was poor while almost one-quarter of French (23%) and German (23%) adults said their government’s handling was good. Now, just 8% of French and 13% of Germans say their government’s handling is good. Almost three-quarters of Spaniards (72%), three in five Britons (62%) and French (61%), a majority of Italians (56%) and 47% of Americans say their government’s handling is poor while 46% of Germans say it is fair.

On the issue of inflation, three in five Italians (63%), over half of Americans (56%) and Spaniards (54%), half of Britons (50%) and a plurality of Germans (47%) and French adults (42%) all believe the recent actions of central banks and governments in cutting interest rates and increasing spending will cause inflation to occur in the near future. There is also a lot of uncertainty on this issue as between 18% of Spaniards and 34% of British adults say they are not sure if this will cause inflation in the near future.

So What?

While there may be some glimmers of hope in these numbers that attitudes on the economy may becoming slightly less negative, they are far from becoming positive. In Europe, one of the larger issues is how each country’s government has been handling the crisis. In these five countries, attitudes on this issue have all gone down in the past six months. While almost half of Americans are still negative, this is better than November and can be attributed to a new administration taking over in January. But, if things don’t turn around, the U.S. bounce may not last.


Source: Business Wire

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