Looking ahead into the future, and the year 2020, most people in five European countries and the U.S. believe that the dominant world power will either be the United States or China. But, there is some disagreement over which one of these will actually be the most dominant country. Pluralities in France (47%), Spain (45%) and Italy (38%) believe that China will be the dominant world power. A plurality of adults in the United States (40%) as well as one-third of British adults (32%) and 30 percent of Germans all say the U.S. will be the dominant world power in 2020.

These are some of the results of a Financial Times/Harris Poll conducted online by Harris Interactive® among a total of 6,590 adults aged 16 to 64 within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain, the United States, and adults aged 18 to 64 in Italy, between November 1 and 14, 2007.

Looking more specifically at China, majorities in Italy (69%), France (63%), Germany (57%) and France all believe that China should be regarded more as a competitor of Europe than as a partner. A plurality of Spaniards (43%) also believe this, but one-third (33%) believe China should be regarded as a partner – the highest proportion in the European countries to feel this way. In the U.S., a majority of adults (58%) believe China should be regarded more as a competitor of the U.S. than as a partner.

Russia is viewed differently than China. Majorities in Italy (61%), Germany (55%), Spain (52%) and France (50%) believe Russia should be regarded more as a partner of Europe, not a competitor. Adults in Great Britain are a little more divided as just over one-third (34%) say Russia should be regarded more as a competitor, three in ten (31%) say it should be viewed as a partner of Europe and just over one-third (35%) are not sure. For Americans, a plurality (43%) believes Russia should be regarded more as a competitor of the U.S. while one-quarter (22%) say partner.

Human Rights Abuses

Strong majorities in all six countries believe that European or U.S. governments are right to speak out about possible human rights abuses in Russia and China. In fact, the replies given in relation to China and Russia are almost identical for each in the six countries. It seems that this is a case where it is more the issue of human rights rather than the country involved which determines public attitudes.

So What?

While 2020 is only 13 years away, large numbers of adults in these six countries believe that China will be the dominant world power. At the same time, China is regarded more as a competitor, than as a partner. How these two perceptions align in the future have both economic and political implications.