OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for March 2009 continue to point to a strong slowdown in the OECD. However France, Italy and the United Kingdom are showing tentative signs of, at least, a pause in the economic slowdown. Weak though these signals are, they are present in the majority of the CLI component series for these countries. In other major OECD economies the CLIs continue to point to deterioration in the business cycle, but at a decreasing rate. However, with the exception of China, where signs of a pause have also emerged, major non-OECD economies still face deteriorating conditions.

The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.1 point in March 2009 and was 9.5 points lower than in March 2008. The CLI for the United States fell by 0.6 point in March and was 11.8 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.2 point in March but stood 7.9 points lower than a year ago. In March, the CLI for Japan decreased by 1.0 point, and was 12.3 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.3 point in March 2009 but was 5.4 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Canada decreased by 0.4 point in March and was 10.2 points lower than a year ago. For France, the CLI increased by 1.2 point in March but was 2.7 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Germany fell by 0.4 point in March and was 14.2 points lower than a year ago. For Italy, the CLI increased by 0.7 point in March but stood 3.4 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for China increased 0.9 point in March 2009 but was 9.5 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India fell by 0.3 point in March 2009 and was 9.4 points lower than in March 2008. The CLI for Russia decreased by 1.4 points in March and was 21.8 points lower than a year ago. In March 2009 the CLI for Brazil decreased by 1.9 point and was 13.2 points lower than a year ago.