While is still too early to assess whether it is a temporary or a more durable turning point, OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for April 2009 point to a reduced pace of deterioration in most of the OECD economies with stronger signals of a possible trough in Canada, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. The signals remain tentative but they are present in the majority of the CLI component series for these countries. Compared to last month, positive signals are also emerging in Germany, Japan and the United States. However, major non-OECD economies still face deteriorating conditions, with the exception of China and India, where tentative signs of a trough have also emerged.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.5 point in April 2009 but was 8.3 points lower than in April 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 0.2 point in April but was 10.8 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.8 point in April but stood 6.3 points lower than a year ago. In April, the CLI for Japan increased by 0.1 point but was 11.9 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.7 point in April 2009 but was 4.2 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Canada increased by 0.4 point in April but was 7.6 points lower than a year ago. For France, the CLI increased by 1.2 point in April but was 1.2 point lower than a year ago. The CLI for Germany increased by 0.1 point in April but was 13.4 points lower than a year ago. For Italy, the CLI increased by 2.1 points in April but stood 0.6 point lower than a year ago.

The CLI for China increased 0.9 point in April 2009 but was 8.3 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India increased by 0.4 point in April 2009 but was 7.9 points lower than in April 2008. The CLI for Russia decreased by 0.3 point in April and was 21.3 points lower than a year ago. In April 2009 the CLI for Brazil decreased by 0.7 point and was 12.8 points lower than a year ago.