OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for September 2008 indicate a continued weakening outlook for all the major seven economies, with cyclical slowdowns at levels not seen since the beginning of the decade. The latest data for major non-OECD member economies tentatively point to a downturn in China and a slowdown in Russia and India. The message from Brazil is mixed but the latest data show tentative signs of a possible downturn.

The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 1.5 point in September 2008 and was 6.1 points lower than in September 2007. The CLI for the United States fell by 1.9 point in September and was 6.6 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 1.4 point in September and stood 7.3 points lower than a year ago. In September, the CLI for Japan decreased by 0.9 point, and was 2.4 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for the United Kingdom fell by 1.4 point in September 2008 and was 7.5 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Canada decreased by 2.0 points in September and was 6.4 points lower than a year ago. For France, the CLI decreased by 0.9 point in September and was 6.4 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Germany fell by 2.3 points in September and was 8.6 points lower than a year ago. For Italy, the CLI fell by 0.5 point in September and stood 5.9 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for China decreased 0.7 point in August 2008 (the CLI was updated from last month) and was 3.2 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India fell by 1.0 point in August 2008 and was 6.6 points lower than in August 2007. The CLI for Russia decreased by 2.7 points in September and was 2.2 points lower than a year ago. In September 2008 the CLI for Brazil decreased by 1.6 point but stayed at the same level as one year ago.