Deloitte announced its global predictions for the telecommunications sector in 2009. While the telecommunications sector is unlikely to remain unscathed by the state of the global economy, Deloitte predicts that the financial pressures felt by the operators and their customers will actually accelerate the industry transformation that has been under way over the last several years.


"As customers alter their buying habits, shifting from best-of-breed technologies to devices and services that offer the best value, operators are more likely to evolve their business models to provide a better data-driven mobile experience," said Phil Asmundson, Deloitte LLP vice chairman and national managing partner for Technology, Media and Telecommunications. "Operators who truly understand their customers can provide differentiated, loyalty-inducing device and service offerings. These companies will not only be better positioned in a challenging year such as this, but in years to come."

Among Deloitte's telecommunications predictions for 2009, highlights include:

Data Ascends from the Basement to the Boardroom

Customer information has long been part of telecommunications operators' asset base, but thus far, collection has outweighed insight. Given the economic outlook, however, better customer information may help operators retain and gain customers. Accurate information can help an operator evolve its positioning from being regarded as the best for the latest technology to the best for value. But gathering of customer information should not undermine consumer privacy and operators should monitor the evolving regulatory environment regarding retention of customer information.

Farewell Mobile Phone, Welcome the Wireless Device

In 2009, the mobile phone will evolve from being a device dedicated to cellular mobile networks into a truly wireless device. For the first time, single wafer chipsets will be available with five or more separate wireless technologies, offering combinations of short-, mid- and long-range communications capable of working with a myriad of distinct networks. Just as radical, the cost of these chipsets could drop below two dollars. All players in the mobile industry should understand how they will be affected by the new low-cost, multiple-standard chipset. For mobile operators and device manufactures, the business case for the integration of wireless technology into a range of devices, not just voice-centered mobile phones, may now be stronger. The industry should consider which devices, such as laptops, could benefit from having multiple wireless standards built in. Mobile operators in particular need to determine whether they should remain focused on the provision of long-range cellular mobile standards, or if they should become aggregators of multiple wireless standards. Operators should also understand how they can monetize the proliferation of wireless technology, particularly if they are subsidizing its inclusion in the phones offered to their customers.

Integration Unleashes Mobile Phone Convergence, Finally

The promise of mobile phone convergence remained largely unfulfilled in recent years, requiring consumers seeking top-of-the-range performance little alternative but to carry multiple devices. But in 2009, the convergence compromise may be overcome. Falling component prices and advances in miniaturization will play a part, but the biggest driver is likely to be improved integration with mobile phones' increasing functionality. Over and above their increasingly attractive technical specifications, demand for these products may be driven by more cautious consumers eager to obtain multiple applications offered at a lower price than available from separate devices and by subsidies from mobile operators.

The Joys of Disintermediation: Why Operators Should Embrace the Application Store

Mobile operators have long been concerned by disintermediation: the intrusion by third parties into the originally closed relationship between operator and customer. But in 2009, mobile phone users are expected to download over 10 billion applications to their mobile phones -- the majority from sites managed by mobile device manufacturers, consumer electronics firms and software houses. Although operators are unlikely to earn any direct revenue from third-party application downloads, there are several options for them to generate income from downloads, including device back up, management of application transfers and specialized services provided to third-party stores. Operators may be able to earn revenues from developers and consumers by wholesaling presence and location sensitivity into services. Consumers will benefit from application stores, but should be mindful of the seemingly inexorable risk that some applications may be contaminated by viruses.

The Mobile Broadband Accident in Slow Motion

Global sales of mobile broadband "dongles" exceeded four million per month during 2008 and are expected to more than double in 2009. The resulting stress on networks, particularly backhaul connections, could be significant. To accommodate the growing number of users, operators may collectively have to spend tens of billions of dollars. And with data now exceeding voice volume on some mobile networks, costs could rapidly erode margins. Going forward, mobile operators will likely have to balance customer satisfaction, diversification, profits and investment levels with the management of traffic loads.