"The global economic downturn has prompted a rash of earnings warnings, and has led to a horde of telecom operators announcing cost-cutting initiatives," says Danny Dicks, research analyst for Light Reading Insider. "There are geographic locations and technology markets that, if not offering huge growth potential over the next year or two, will offer some growth and some places of refuge for vendors."
Globally, markets are reacting differently in the face of a hurting economy, Dicks notes. "There are highs and lows in terms of infrastructure investment across all the major geographic blocks," Dicks says. "In spite of the gloomy headlines, it looks as if there a lot of new network construction underway or imminent around the world."
Key findings of After the Freeze: A Five-Year Telecom Capex Forecast include:
* Global telecom capex is expected to begin growing again in 2010, after a slight contraction in 2009
* Government stimulus, operator investment in new broadband technologies, and the awarding of new mobile licenses will drive new infrastructure spending
* Spending on mobile and fixed backhaul infrastructure has overtaken spending on fixed access networks
* Capex growth will be strongest in the Asia/Pacific region, which will present challenges to incumbent Western vendors
* Africa and the Middle East will be the fastest-growing markets, but their total capex will still account for less than 10 percent of worldwide spending in 2013
