According to the United Nations and the World Bank warns, civil disturbances may be triggered in 33 countries as governments in Asia, Africa the Middle East and Caribbean try to control surging food costs and avoid social unrest by curbing exports or lifting import duties on basic food staples such as rice, edible oils, wheat, cement, steel, maize and the like. According to World Bank figures, global food prices were 57% higher in March than in the same month of 2007.
Strauss-Khan told the media at the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington that if food inflation keeps accelerating at its current rate "the consequences will be terrible.'' with hundreds of thousands of people will be starving, leading to a disruption in the economic environment.'' The IMF estimated last week in its World Economic Outlook that consumer-price inflation in poor or so-called developing countries will rise to 7.4% this year, compared to January's already high estimate of 6.4%. The World Bank reckons food prices could remain high for the next seven years.
World rice prices have risen 96% and more for some types, in the past year, with most of that rise coming in the past month as major exporters, including China, Egypt, Vietnam and India, which export more than a third of the world's rice, to cut shipments of the grain to allow adequate national stocks to be maintained. Late last week Japan reported that its wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in 17 years as they hit an annual growth rate of 3.9% in March. And India revealed its troubling level of price pressure has deepened with the worst figures for nearly three and a half years.
In both cases higher oil and energy prices, plus the surging cost of food, such as rice, meat, wheat and edible oils, are making for a powerful and dangerous mix for two respective governments facing political pressures and possible elections in the not too distant future. Japan's producer prices climbed 3.9% last month March 2007, after a revised 3.6%, according to figures issued by the Bank of Japan. And it is going to get a lot worse with steel power, cement and other coal users starting to reach agreement with foreign suppliers of coking and thermal coal that will boost prices by up to 300% in some cases (or more than $US300 a tonne for hard coking coal from Queensland).
The higher energy and raw-material costs threaten profits at a growing range of companies, with knock-on effects across the wider economy as energy prices rise, and the cost of steel is passed on to major consumers like cars, white goods makers, the construction, shipbuilding and their suppliers. Japanese machinery orders fell in February, confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers dropped to a four-year low and production declined for a second month.
The Bank of Japan also issued figures last week showing that prices of often-purchased goods such as bread and milk climbed 2.5% in March. The government raised wheat prices 30$ at the start of the month. Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes fruit, fish and vegetables, climbed 1%, a decade high.
India's inflation accelerated to 7.41% in the week ended March 29, the quickest in more than three years, industrial production grew at the fastest pace in four months in February thanks to high levels of demand from the growing number of power plants and factories boosted demand for electricity and cement. Production at factories, utilities and mines rose 8.6% after a revised 5.8% rise in January.
Since 2005, the prices of staples have jumped 80%, according to a recent World Bank report, with the real price of rice recently hitting a 19-year high and the real price of wheat running at almost twice the average price of the last 25 years.
But analysts said it has been the surging cost of steel and other metals that has contributed to the latest rise: food costs were not a big factor, but will be for the next few weeks because of a near doubling in prices at the start of April. But winter crops of rice, oilseeds and other commodities are hitting shelves in the coming weeks which will take a bit of the sting out of food price costs.
