The international automobile industry is facing a huge upheaval. We are currently witnessing a shift in the most important production locations and sales markets to emerging markets. These shifts in emphasis will carry consequences for the entire industry and new global players will emerge. Arthur D. Little’s study, entitled "Shifting Centers of Gravity - The End of the Automotive Industry as we know it?" points to future scenarios and the most important spheres of activity.

Accelerated by the financial crisis, the world’s economic fabric is changing as a result of the development of the BRIC states. These states have sufficient purchasing power and large amounts of capital that is being used for investments and acquisitions. Just the other day the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, said publicly that he would like to go on a world-wide shopping spree. The Tata Nano city car beginning production in India, the interest of Chinese carmakers in OPEL and Volvo, as well as the substantial problems of the former industry heavyweights General Motors and Chrysler are further examples which reveal the dynamics and scope of these processes. Marc Winterhoff, Director and Head of Arthur D. Little's Automotive Pracitce predicts that: "The current "exclusive" club of global players will extend to include five new members from China and one new member from India by the year 2020."

In March 2009 the advisers of Arthur D. Little's Automotive Practice outlined the global shift in the industry in the study "Shifting Centers of Gravity – the End of the Automotive Industry as we know it?” The study identified seven central trends which will cause a shift in market forces and global emphasis in the automobile industry over the coming years.

In particular, the established high-volume producers will come under pressure because the emerging OEMs will be focusing on the new global middle segment where they will be competing with high-volume producers. The customers of these new markets have a strong demand for vehicles with good basic functionality without extra features; these customers are, in addition, extremely price conscious. It will become difficult for established high-volume producers to actually achieve their ambitious growth goals against the background of the fast, ever stronger emerging OEMs.

The established manufacturers should therefore pay special attention to the Chinese car manufacturers. Marc Winterhoff says "The Chinese automobile manufacturers are following the path of local to global supplier with a clear strategy: Firstly they are aiming at market leadership in their own country, next there will be an orchestrated appearance on the emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East and Africa – first in the lower price segment, then also in the middle price range. Finally, these experiences will be used to attack the established markets."

In the area of emerging OEMs, the lack of know-how is often brought up as an argument. Marc Winterhoff states "Here we are currently seeing that they obtain their necessary know-how through acquisitions and especially through suppliers and development service providers in order to offset their problems of quality, lack of technology and management ability. Established manufacturers must develop strategies to secure the long-term exclusive access to technology innovation.”

In the meantime, Chinese manufacturers are working hard work to develop their skills regarding electric power systems as they see it as an opportunity of acquiring a competitive advantage over the established players. Herein lays a huge danger, as we have already seen how leaps in technology and changes in customer requirements in other industries have led to shifts in the balance of power in the past.