Of the 14,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 23% expect to add to their payrolls during the first quarter of 2007, while 11% expect to reduce staff levels. Sixty percent expect no change in the hiring pace, and 6% are undecided about their hiring plans.
The seasonally adjusted survey results show that employers in the Non- Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services sectors remain confident and foresee little change in the hiring pace compared to the fourth quarter. Hiring is expected to improve slightly in the Education and Public Administration sectors, and Mining employers foresee a more notable, albeit modest, improvement in the employment landscape.
In four of the 10 industry sectors surveyed, employers expect weaker hiring activity in the first three months of 2007 versus the final quarter of 2006. These sectors include Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities and, especially, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate.
"The Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector was one of the strongest performers in the survey throughout most of 2006, but the first quarter forecast for 2007 indicates a significant change in attitude. Employers in this sector reported the weakest hiring expectations, making job prospects much tighter than in recent years," said Prising.
The quarter-over-quarter hiring outlook for the four U.S. regions is consistent with fourth quarter results in the Northeast, Midwest and South. Employers in the West are slightly less optimistic than they were in the final months of 2006. Compared with last year at this time, employers in the South and West have slightly weaker hiring plans. Job prospects in the Midwest are expected to be about the same, while a brighter jobs picture is predicted for the Northeast. Employer optimism is most apparent in the South, while companies in the Midwest are most reserved about their hiring plans in the new year.
In addition to the United States, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted in 26 other countries and territories. The quarterly report from Manpower Inc. is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, gathering data from nearly 50,000 employers across the globe each quarter.
International survey results show that employers are optimistic about adding to their workforces in the first quarter of 2007, with those in 20 of 23 countries and territories reporting more robust hiring plans than one year ago.
"The global labor market looks set for a positive start to 2007 with employers in most of Europe and Asia planning to increase hiring compared to the first quarter of 2006, and the U.S. job market continuing to plug along at a steady pace," said Jeffrey Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc. "The German labor market appears to be gaining momentum with a second consecutive quarter of healthier job prospects ahead, while employers in Singapore and India are set to accelerate hiring considerably from 12 months ago."
The most optimistic hiring expectations for the first quarter are in Peru, Singapore, India, Argentina, South Africa, Costa Rica, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Employers in Belgium, Costa Rica, Peru, Ireland, Japan, Spain, Switzerland and South Africa are reporting their most positive hiring plans since the survey began in these countries. In addition, the survey was expanded to Argentina this quarter, where hiring expectations are among the strongest in the survey.
Of the six countries surveyed in the Americas, Peruvian employers are the most optimistic about adding to their workforces, while employers in the remaining countries expect continued positive hiring activity.
Across the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, job prospects are strongest in South Africa, Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Belgium, while Italian employers report the weakest regional hiring expectations.
In Asia Pacific, hiring prospects remain strong but are slightly weaker than three months ago. Compared to first quarter of 2006, hiring is expected to improve in seven of eight countries and territories surveyed. Hiring expectations are strongest in Singapore and India, and weakest in Taiwan.
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on March 13, 2007, to report hiring expectations for the second quarter of 2007.