Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, are pointing to some divergence in the pace of economic activity across major economies. Compared with last month’s assessment, this month’s CLIs point to a slower or stable pace of expansion in most EU countries and continued expansion in North America, China and Russia.

The CLIs for Canada and China signal regained momentum in economic activity and the CLIs for the United States, Germany and Russia, continue pointing to expansion relative to trend. Based on the CLIs, the pace of expansion in France and the United Kingdom will be stable, albeit slow. The CLIs for Italy, Brazil and India are pointing to slowdowns in economic activity relative to trend.

Because of the exceptional circumstances the country is facing, it is not possible to provide reliable estimates of the CLI for Japan at this stage.

Expansion in the OECD area