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OECD Composite Leading Indicators: Positive Outlook for Major Global Economies
added: 2007-07-06

The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that moderate economic expansion will continue in the OECD area. May 2007 data show improved performance in the CLI’s six month rate of change in all the major seven economies except Italy. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to continued steady expansion in China, India and Brazil and an improved outlook for Russia.

The CLI for the OECD area rose 0.5 point in May to 110.1 from a revised 109.6 in April and its six-month rate of change was up for the fifth consecutive month.

The CLI for the United States increased by 0.5 point in May and its six-month rate of change was up for the fifth month in a row. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.1 point in May but its six-month rate of change has a downward trend since June 2006. In May 2007, the CLI for Japan rose by 0.7 point and its six-month rate of change has increased in the last two months.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.5 point in May and its six-month rate of change increased strongly for the third month in a row. The CLI for Canada increased by 0.3 point in May and its six-month rate of change has shown an upward trend since November 2006. For France, the CLI rose by 0.5 point in May, and its six-month rate of change increased for the fourth month in a row. The CLI for Germany rose by 0.4 point in May. However its six-month rate of change has shown some weakening since May 2006. For Italy the CLI fell by 0.6 point in May while its six-month rate of change has had a downward trend since July 2006.

The CLI for China rose a strong 3.3 points in May 2007 and its six-month rate of change has stabilised at a high level after six months of continued strength. The CLI for India increased 1.6 points in April and its six-month rate of change increased for the first time following a slight downward trend since November 2006. The CLI for Russia rose by 1.4 points in May 2007. Its six-month rate of change has also increased for three consecutive months. In May 2007 the CLI for Brazil increased by 2.4 points while its six-month rate of change has risen strongly over the last five months.


Source: OECD

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