OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August 2009 continue to point to recovery in all major economies with CLIs for France and Italy pointing to a potential expansion; however these expansion signals should be interpreted with some care as the CLIs are less precise in differentiating between expansion and recovery than in identifying turning points.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 1.5 point in August 2009 and was 0.6 point higher than in August 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 1.6 point in August, 1.6 point lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 1.7 point in August, 4.1 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Japan increased by 1.3 point in August, 3.9 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 1.6 point in August 2009 and was 1.7 point higher than a year ago. The CLI for Canada increased by 1.7 point in August, 1.5 point higher than a year ago. The CLI for France increased by 1.3 point in August, 6.6 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Germany increased by 2.4 points in August, 2.1 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Italy increased by 2.0 points in August, 10.4 points higher than a year ago.

The CLI for China increased 1.5 point in July 2009, 0.7 point lower than a year ago (unchanged). The CLI for India increased by 0.9 point in August, 0.1 point higher than a year ago. The CLI for Russia increased by 1.1 point in August, 10.2 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Brazil increased by 0.4 point in August, 8.5 points lower than a year ago.