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OECD Composite Leading Indicators Signal Continued Positive Outlook for Major Global Economies
added: 2007-08-10

The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that moderate economic expansion will continue in the OECD area. June 2007 data show improved performance in the CLI’s six month rate of change in all the major seven economies except Italy. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to continued steady expansion in China and India and an improved outlook for Brazil and Russia.

The CLI for the OECD area rose 0.5 point in June to 110.5 from 110.0 in May and its six-month rate of change was up for the sixth consecutive month.

The CLI for the United States increased by 0.8 point in June and its six-month rate of change was up for the sixth month in a row. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.1 point in June but its six-month rate of change has a downward trend since June 2006. In June 2007, the CLI for Japan rose by 0.2 point and its six-month rate of change has increased in the last three months.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.1 point in June and its six-month rate of change increased strongly for the fourth month in a row. The CLI for Canada increased by 0.4 point in June and its six-month rate of change has shown an upward trend since October 2006. For France, the CLI rose by 0.5 point in June, and its six-month rate of change increased for the fifth month in a row. The CLI for Germany rose by 0.7 point in June and its six-month rate of change has increased for the third month in a row. For Italy the CLI fell by 1.0 point in June while its six-month rate of change has had a downward trend since July 2006.

The CLI for China rose 1.4 points in June 2007 and its six-month rate of change continues to stay above long term growth rate level. The CLI for India increased 1.3 points in May and its six-month rate of change increased for the last three month. The CLI for Russia rose by 1.3 points in June 2007. Its six-month rate of change has also increased for four consecutive months. In June 2007 the CLI for Brazil increased by 2.0 points while its six-month rate of change has risen strongly over the last five months.


Source: OECD

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