The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that a moderate slowdown in economic activity lies ahead in the OECD area. November 2007 data indicate a slowdown in all major seven economies except the
United States, Germany and the United Kingdom where only a downturn is observed. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to continued steady expansion in China and Brazil, improved performance in Russia but a weakening outlook for India.

The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.5 point in November 2007 and is 2.2 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for the United States fell by 0.8 point in November and it is 1.5 point lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 0.3 point in November and stands 2.3 points lower than a year ago. In November, the CLI for Japan fell by 0.2 point, and it is 6.3 points lower than a year ago. The “dwellings started” component of the CLI for Japan reflects a backlog due to administrative changes in the Building Standard Law, and it explains part of the large fall in the CLI. The CLI for Japan shows, however, the same tendency even when the effect of this component is filtered out.

The CLI for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.6 point in November 2007 and it is 0.4 point lower than a year ago. The CLI for Canada decreased 0.7 point in November and is at the same level as a year ago. For France, the CLI decreased by 0.1 point in November and is 1.2 point lower than a year ago. The CLI for Germany fell by 0.2 point in November and it is 3.0 points lower than a year ago. For Italy the CLI decreased by 0.4 point in November and it stands 2.7 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for China increased by 0.2 point in November 2007 and stands 2.3 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for India rose by 0.9 points in October 2007 but it is 0.4 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Russia fell by 0.4 point in November, but its level is 0.9 points higher than a year ago. In November 2007 the CLI for Brazil rose by a revised 1.0 point and stands 6.3 points higher than a year ago.