The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that continued moderate economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area. April 2007 data show improved performance in the CLI’s six month rate of change in the United States, Canada, France and the United Kingdom, while a downward trend is still apparent in Japan, Germany and Italy. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to continued steady expansion in China, India and Brazil, but a slightly weaker outlook for Russia.

The CLI for the OECD area rose 0.4 point in April to 109.9 from a revised 109.5 in March and its six-month rate of change was up for the fourth consecutive month. The revision is due to changes to the components included in the CLIs and or updates to turning points for seven OECD Member countries. Further information can be found in the methodological notes below.

The CLI for the United States increased by 0.7 point in April and its six-month rate of change has an upward trend since January 2007. The Euro area’s CLI stayed unchanged in April while its six-month rate of change has fallen since June 2006. In April 2007, the CLI for Japan fell by 0.2 point. Its six-month rate of change has trended downwards since March 2006.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.1 point in April and its six-month rate of change increased for the second month in a row. The CLI for Canada increased by 0.3 point in April and its six-month rate of change has increased for seven months in a row. For France, the CLI rose by 0.6 point in April, and its six-month rate of change increased for the third month in a row. The CLI for Germany rose by 0.1 point in April. However its six-month rate of change has shown a downward trend since May 2006. For Italy the CLI fell by 0.8 point in April. Its six-month rate of change has a downward trend since July 2006.

The CLI for China rose a strong 3.0 points in April 2007 and its six-month rate of change has stabilised at a high level since February 2007. The CLI for India increased 1.3 point in March, although its six-month rate of change has a slight downward trend since December 2006. The CLI for Russia rose by 1.1 point in April 2007. Its six-month rate of change has also increased for two consecutive months. In March 2007 the CLI for Brazil increased by 1.7 point while its six-month rate of change has risen over the last three months.