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OECD Composite Leading Indicators Signal a Moderating Outlook for most Major Global Economies
added: 2007-09-07

The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that some moderation in economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area. July 2007 data show weakening performance in the CLI’s six month rate of change in all the major seven economies. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to moderating expansion in China and Brazil, but an improved outlook for India and Russia.

The CLI for the OECD area decreased 0.2 point in July to 110.2 from 110.4 in June and its six-month rate of change decreased after having shown an upward trend since January 2007.

The CLI for the United States was unchanged in July and its six-month rate of change decreased for the first time after a sequence of increases over the previous six months. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 0.2 point in July and its six-month rate of change has a downward trend since June 2006. In July 2007, the CLI for Japan fell by 0.8 point and its six-month rate of change has a downward trend since April 2006.

The CLI for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.3 point in July and its six-month rate of change also decreased following improvements since March 2007. The CLI for Canada decreased by 0.1 point in July and its six-month rate of change decreased for the second month in a row following an upward trend since October 2006. For France, the CLI rose by 0.1 point in July and its six-month rate of change has an upward trend since February 2007. The CLI for Germany fell by 0.4 point in July and its six-month rate of change also decreased. For Italy the CLI fell by 0.4 point in July while its six-month rate of change has had a downward trend since July 2006.

The CLI for China rose 2.1 points in July 2007 and its six-month rate of change continues to stay above long term growth rate level. The CLI for India increased 2.6 points in June and its six-month rate of change was up for the second month in a row. The CLI for Russia rose by 0.6 points in July 2007. Its six-month rate of change has also increased for five consecutive months. In July 2007 the CLI for Brazil stayed unchanged and its six-month rate of change decreased following an upward trend since February 2007.


Source: OECD

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