The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that some moderation in economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area. Although March 2007 data show slightly improved performance in the CLI’s six month rate of change in the United States, United Kingdom and Italy, a downward trend is still apparent in most of the Major Seven economies. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to accelerating expansion in China, steady expansion in India and Brazil, but a weaker outlook for Russia.

The CLI for the OECD area rose 0.2 point in March 2007 from 109.7 to 109.9, but its six-month rate of change shows a downward trend since March 2006.

The CLI for the United States increased by 0.6 point in March while its six-month rate of change increased for the first time since October 2006. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.1 point in March but its six-month rate of change has fallen since June 2006. In March 2007, the CLI for Japan fell by 0.8 point. Its six-month rate of change has trended downwards since March 2006.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.7 point in March and its six-month rate of change increased for the second month in a row. The CLI for Canada decreased by 0.1 point in March while its six-month rate of change was also down over the last three months. For France the CLI rose by 0.2 point in March, but its six-month rate has remained relatively stable since December 2006. The CLI for Germany fell by 0.3 point in March. Its six-month rate of change has shown a downward trend since May 2006. For Italy the CLI increased by 0.3 point in March and although its six-month rate of change also rose, it remains negative.

The CLI for China rose a strong 7.4 points in March 2007 and its six-month rate of change increased sharply for the sixth consecutive month. The CLI for India increased 1.0 point in February, although its six-month rate of change has a slight downward trend since December 2006. The CLI for Russia increased by 0.7 point in March 2007, but its six-month rate of change still shows a downward trend since May 2006. In March 2007, the CLI for Brazil increased by 0.9 point and its six-month rate of change is also up over the last three months.