The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest a slowdown in economic activity lies ahead in the OECD area. February 2008 data indicate a weakening outlook for all the major seven economies. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to a downturn in China and India and slowing expansion in Brazil and Russia.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.1 point in February 2008 but was 2.4 points lower than in February 2007. The CLI for the United States decreased by 0.1 point in February and was 2.5 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI fell by 0.3 point in February and stood 2.8 points lower than a year ago. In February, the CLI for Japan rose by 0.4 point, but it was 4.7 points lower than the same month last year. The CLI for Japan is strongly influenced by its “dwellings started” component, showing a transitory change caused by modifications of the Building Standard Law. The CLI, however, has a weakening tendency even when the effect of this component is filtered out.

The CLI for the United Kingdom fell by 0.3 point in February 2008 and it was 1.3 point lower than February 2007. The CLI for Canada was unchanged in February but was 2.1 points lower than a year ago. For France, the CLI fell by 0.6 point in February and was 1.9 point lower than a year ago. The CLI for Germany decreased by 0.1 point in February and was 2.7 points lower than a year ago. For Italy, the CLI decreased by 0.2 point in February and stood 4.1 points lower than February 2007.

The CLI for China was down by 0.7 point in February 2008 and stood 3.5 point lower than a year ago. The CLI for India fell by 0.7 point in January 2008 and was 1.9 point lower than in January 2007. The CLI for Russia fell by 0.1 point in February, but its level was 2.9 points higher than a year ago. In February 2008 the CLI for Brazil dropped 0.6 point, but it stood 2.4 points higher than a year ago.