The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased for the second straight month in November. The strengths among the coincident indicators were also widespread, as all components advanced this month. Despite the gain, the coincident economic index declined by 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in November 2009, down from the 1.5 percent increase (about a 3.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 0.7 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009, after expanding at a 2.9 percent annual rate during the second quarter.
After improving in the first three quarters of 2009, The Conference Board LEI for Australia began to decline in September and its six-month growth rate has moderated somewhat, as a result. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Australia has been essentially flat since May, with its six-month growth rate turning slightly negative this month. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth will remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the yield spread, share prices, rural goods exports, and gross operating surplus. Building approvals, the sales to inventories ratio, and money supply declined in November.
With the 0.3 percent decrease in November, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 111.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in October and declined 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the leading economic index increased 1.0 percent, and three of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in November. The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - occurred in employed persons, retail trade, household gross disposable income, and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 114.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident economic index decreased 0.1 percent, with two of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
