The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Australia declined 1.0 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in November.

The Leading Economic Index declined sharply in November, decreasing for the third consecutive month. Building approvals, share prices, the yield spread, and rural goods exports contributed negatively to the index, more than offsetting the continued strong expansion in real money supply. The six-month change in the index has continued to fall - to -1.2 percent (a -2.4 percent annual rate) in the period through November 2008, down sharply from the 1.8 percent rate of growth (a 3.6 percent annual rate) from November 2007 to May 2008. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained nearly balanced in recent months.

The Coincident Economic Index continued to increase in November, with the strengths among its components remaining widespread in recent months. Retail trade rose again this month, while employment fell. The six-month change in the CEI has picked up to 1.1 percent (a 2.2 percent annual rate) through November 2008, up from 0.3 percent (a 0.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP growth dropped to a 0.3 percent annual rate for the third quarter of 2008, down sharply from the 1.9 percent average annual rate of growth in the first half of the year.

The LEI began to weaken in the middle of 2008, and the six-month change in the index turned negative in November. Meanwhile, the CEI, a measure of current economic activity, has remained on an upward trend during this period, with the strengths among its components remaining consistently widespread. The continued weakening in the LEI suggests that economic growth will remain slow in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS

Three of the seven components in the Leading Economic Index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are money supply, gross operating surplus, and the sales to inventories ratio. Building approvals, share prices, the yield spread and rural goods exports declined.

With the 1.0 percent decrease in November, the Leading Economic Index now stands at 114.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in October and declined 0.3 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the leading economic index decreased 1.2 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS Three of the four components in the Coincident Economic Index increased in November. The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - occurred in household gross disposable income, retail trade, and industrial production. Employed persons declined in November.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, the Coincident Economic Index now stands at 111.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent, with all four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).