The Conference Board CEI for Australia also increased in March, following a slight decline in February. Employed persons contributed positively to the index, more than offsetting the negative contribution from retail trade. The six-month change in the coincident economic index stands at 1.1 percent (a 2.1 percent annual rate) in the period through March 2010, up from 0.4 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 3.7 percent annual rate during the last quarter of 2009, an improvement from the gains of 1.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter and 3.0 percent average annual rate for the first half of 2009.
The Conference Board LEI for Australia remains on a rising trend, although its six-month growth rate has slowed lately. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Australia has been essentially flat this year, after rising moderately in the second half of 2009. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy will continue to expand, but perhaps at a modest pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in March. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are money supply, the yield spread, share prices, the sales-to-inventories ratio, rural goods exports, and gross operating surplus. Building approvals declined in March.
With the 0.3 percent increase in March, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 115.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in February and increased 0.1 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the leading economic index increased 1.9 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 64.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in March. The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - occurred in employed persons, industrial production, and household gross disposable income. Retail trade declined in March.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 114.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in February and increased 0.3 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent, with two of the four components making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
