The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased for the second consecutive month in February, with all its components advancing. The coincident economic index rose 2.2 percent (about a 4.5 percent annual rate) between August 2010 and February 2011, in line with the growth for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 5.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 3.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell this month for the first time since the middle of 2010. However, its six-month growth rate remains substantially stronger than in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, remains on an upward trend, and its six-month growth rate has been relatively steady in recent months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors to the index -from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and stock prices. Net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component decreased in February. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in February, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 119.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in January and increased 0.2 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 3.3 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one - are number of people employed (measured by total IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 114.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in January and decreased 0.4 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.2 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
