The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in March.

The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased sharply in March, following a small decline in February. Oil prices made a large positive contribution to the index this month, more than offsetting the negative contributions from net insufficient inventories and industrial production (construction component). The six-month change in the leading economic index stands at 3.8 percent (about a 7.7 percent annual rate) in the period through March 2011, up from -0.1 percent (a -0.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have been somewhat more widespread than weaknesses in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased again in March, with industrial production and employment contributing positively to the index. The coincident economic index rose 2.2 percent (about a 4.5 percent annual rate) between September 2010 and March 2011, in line with the growth for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 4.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in March, resuming its upward trend. Its six-month growth rate has fluctuated within a narrow range in recent months, although it remains stronger than the third quarter of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, remains on an upward trend, and its six-month growth rate has been relatively steady in recent months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS

Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributors to the index -from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one - are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. Net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component decreased in March. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.8 percent increase in March, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 120.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in February and increased 0.6 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 3.8 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributors - from the larger positive contributor - are industrial production and number of people employed (measured by total IMSS beneficiaries). Retail sales declined in March.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 115.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in February and increased 0.5 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.2 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).