The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index ® (CEI) 0.2 percent in May.

The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in May, following two consecutive gains. Oil prices, stock prices, and net insufficient inventories made large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the strong gain in the industrial production construction component. The six-month change in the leading economic index stands at 1.9 percent (a 3.8 percent annual rate) between November 2010 and May 2011, down from the 3.0 percent increase (a 6.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become somewhat more widespread than the strengths in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased slightly in May, and last month’s small decline was revised up to no change as actual data for retail sales became available. Despite this month’s gain, the six-month growth rate in the coincident economic index continued to slow – to 1.4 percent (a 2.8 percent annual rate) during the period through May 2011, slightly down from the 2.0 percent rate (a 4.0 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, down from growth of 4.6 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.

The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in May, its second decline in the past four months. As a result, its six-month growth rate has slowed compared to the second half of last year, amid widespread weaknesses among its components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, continued its general upward trend which started in mid-2009. However, its growth has also moderated in the last six months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS

Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the industrial production construction component and the (inverted) real exchange rate. The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, and net insufficient inventories decreased in May. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.4 percent decrease in May The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 120.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in April and increased 0.8 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.9 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributors - in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - are industrial production and number of people employed (measured by IMSS total beneficiaries). Retail sales declined in May.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 115.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and increased 0.4 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.4 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).