Quarter-on-quarter, G7 exports fell 13.6% while imports were down 10.5% in the first quarter of 2009. Year-on-year exports markedly dropped by 22.8% and imports fell 16.8% in the first quarter 2009.
German quarter-on-quarter exports dropped 13.0% and imports by 9.5% in the first quarter 2009. On a year-on-year basis the fall was even more pronounced with a drop by 23.3% for imports and 15.1% for exports.
Quarter-on-quarter, United States exports fell 11.5% and imports 11.8%. Compared with the previous twelve months, exports declined by 15.8% and imports by 19.0%. The two-digit rates of decline in both comparisons are unprecedented since Q1 2007.
Japan seems to be particularly affected by the current crisis with a 26.7% slump in quarter-to-quarter exports and a drop in imports of 12.9% in Q1 2009. Year-on-year, export volumes plunged by a striking 42.1% and imports fell 18.7%.
Value growth of Trade in Goods and Services
Compared with the previous quarter, the value of exports and imports of goods and services in OECD countries, measured in seasonally adjusted current price US dollars, continued to drop significantly, albeit less dramatically. The seasonally adjusted figures fell by 13.4% and 15.2% respectively.
On a year-on-year basis, growth in the value of exports and imports of goods and services plunged, by 27.1% for exports and by 27.9% for imports in the first quarter. The sharp drop observed in Q4 2008 continued in Q1 2009, albeit less steeply.
In both comparisons, goods fell much more sharply at about twice the rates than those of services, the overall trend for both goods and services being largely determined by the high share of goods in total trade.
Merchandise trade values for the first four months 2009 suggest decline is easing
This section has been added to the quarterly OECD trade press release since the April 2009 release to include most recent monthly trends. This monthly view compares trends of the G7 and the constituent countries for the last twelve months for which data are available (including provisional data). In this release, the period under review is April 2008 – April 2009. Seasonally adjusted trade values, and not rates of change, are shown. The observed overall trend is remarkably similar across countries, backing up the notion of a “synchronized trade collapse”.
Since July 2008, G7 total merchandise trade values continued to decline, but at a slower pace since February 2009.
Germany’s decline in merchandise trade values levelled off in March 2009, but both exports and imports fell again in April 2009.
United States’ rates of decline showed signs of deceleration since January 2009.
Japan’s particularly marked decline in merchandise trade since October 2008 slowed in early 2009 and picked up slightly in April 2009.
Merchandise trade values of Italy steeply declined throughout August 2008 – February 2009, but the decline slowed in March-April 2009. Since February 2009, the former negative trade balance oscillates around zero.
Somewhat similar to Italy, Canada’s merchandise trade steeply declined from mid-2008 onwards until January 2009. The downward trend eased since January with a, formerly positive, trade balance oscillating around zero.
France’s merchandise trade values strongly declined during the second half of 2008, levelled off in February 2009, but since then declined again. The trade balance continued to be negative.
The United Kingdom showed a similar negative trend as most other G7 countries with signs of leveling-off in March and April 2009. Net trade remained negative.
