G7 exports fell 9.5% while imports were down 5.6% quarter-on-quarter in the final quarter of 2008. Year-on-year exports dropped 7.9% and imports fell 6.4% in the fourth quarter.
In the United States, export volume growth dropped 7.8% and imports fell 5.1%. Compared with the previous 12 months, exports declined by 2.3% for the first time since the last quarter of 2006. The 8.4% fall in import volumes accelerated the downward trend from the first quarter 2008.
Japan’s exports plunged 19.3% in the fourth quarter 2008, about twice the rate of the G7, while imports fell 4.6%. This pattern was also reflected year-on-year with a 20.1% drop for exports and a 6.8% decline in imports.
German quarter-on-quarter exports dropped by 9.0% and imports by 6.1% in the fourth quarter. On a year-on-year basis exports fell 7.8% while imports were down 1.8%: the first falls for Germany since the fourth quarter 2006.
EU15 Extra-EU quarter-to-quarter exports dropped with 6.3% less sharply than G7 exports, while the fall in imports was more pronounced with 7.3%. This pattern was also reflected year-on-year with a 5.2% decline for exports, while imports were down 5.7%.
Values of Trade in Goods and Services
In the fourth quarter of 2008, the value of exports and imports of goods and services in OECD countries, measured in current US dollars, collapsed to an unprecedented low, falling by a seasonally adjusted 18.6% and 18.5% respectively compared with the previous quarter. However, provisional monthly data for January and February 2009 suggest a slowing down of the rate of decline.
On a year-on-year basis, growth in the value of exports and imports of goods and services plunged, by 11.6% for exports and by 10.4% for imports in the fourth quarter. In both comparisons, goods fell more sharply than services.
Merchandise trade values in the first two months of 2009 suggest decline is easing
According to provisional monthly data, G7 total merchandise trade values continued to fall in January and February 2009 but at a slower pace.
With exports picking up slightly in February 2009 and continuing declining imports, the United States’ negative trade balance continued to shrink for the fourth consecutive month.
Japan’s strong decline in imports continued, but exports recovered slightly in February 2009.
Germany’s strong downward trend until end 2008 has eased somewhat since December 2008 and the positive trade balance increased slightly due to stable exports in January and February 2009.
Italy’s strong downward trend during the second half of 2008 levelled-off to some extent in early 2009, particularly for exports in February, resulting in a smaller trade deficit.
In France, after strongly declining trade over the second half of 2008, trade trends levelled-off in February 2009.
In the United Kingdom, the downward trend since August 2008 continued, but with a diminishing trade deficit.
Canada’s trade balance turned negative in the first two months 2009, as exports values declines faster than imports.
