Vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) around the world are facing tremendous pressure to reduce emissions, improve fuel economy, and enhance vehicle performance. This has led them to substantially increase investment in advanced engine technologies. With regard to engine types, gasoline vehicles are likely to continue being the most favoured in the years to come, with the exception of Europe and India, where diesel engines are already dominating the market.

Diesel vehicles are becoming prominent worldwide due to increasingly strict emission norms. However, they are unlikely to make much headway in major automotive markets such as North America and Japan, which will witness the continuing dominance of gasoline engines and the steadily increasing popularity of hybrid vehicles. Alternative fuel vehicles powered by fuels such as ethanol and natural gas will also experience a slow rise in acceptance and account for approximately 6.0 to 8.0 percent of global vehicle sales by 2015.

"Advanced valvetrain technologies such as variable valvetrain (VVT) and displacement on demand are set to provide stiff competition to conventional fixed cam timing valvetrains for gasoline engines, with estimated global penetration rates of 25.0 to 30.0 percent by 2015," says the analyst of this research service. "Injection technologies are also likely to follow the same trend and become more popular than fixed cam timing for gasoline engines as they help comply with emission regulations." These systems are expected to have a penetration rate of approximately 15.0 to 20.0 percent by 2015 in gasoline vehicles worldwide. Turbocharged engines are likely to make an appearance in a growing number of diesel vehicles globally by 2010, with penetration rates expected to reach 10.0 to 15.0 percent by 2015 in North America alone.

Cost of Advanced Engine Technologies Restricts Growth

"The main challenge facing OEMs and suppliers planning to introduce advanced engine and alternative powertrain technologies is the high costs of the systems," says the analyst. "Hybrid vehicles are considerably more expensive than conventional gasoline ones and this is hampering their growth to some extent at present." The costs of advanced valvetrain technologies such as VVTs are also high. However, with continuous phasing through electro-hydraulic actuators, the cost equation for variable cam timing is likely to improve, leading to higher penetration rates, which are likely to cross 55.0 percent in gasoline vehicles in North America by 2015. Variable valve actuation will become routine practice in this region for gasoline engines, but not diesel engines.

In Europe, the pressure of meeting emission norms is boosting variable geometry turbochargers, which are expected to be used in more than 80 percent of diesel vehicles by 2015. VVTs will also start penetrating the European and Japanese markets for the same reason. In Europe, North America, and Japan, injection pressure is likely to reach 2200 bar for diesel engines due to excess power demand. Going forward, future-generation vehicles are also likely to have downsized engines with additional boosting capacity to retain power, while reducing emissions and fuel consumption.